China is quietly looking weaker

Xi Jinping's paranoia, rapidly changing technology, and the limitations of China's system could cut short the Chinese Century. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 2 months ago

Save us, Digital Cronkite!

Social media tore our society apart. Perhaps AI can put it back together. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

Roundup #79: The revenge of macroeconomics

Ehrlich; AI and knowledge; The Strait of Hormuz; Government debt and inflation; Japanese robots; Democrats and taxes; Smartphones | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

The future isn't what it used to be

Thoughts on extrapolative expectations. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

San Francisco's urban revival is in danger

If the Board of Supervisors falls to the Progressives, the old dysfunction will return. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

Are we in the foothills of World War 3?

The coalitions are hardening, and the weapons are being deployed. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

Something feels weird about this economy

Is it AI? Tariffs? The immigration crackdown? | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

If AI is a weapon, why don't we regulate it like one?

Thoughts on the fight between Anthropic and the Department of War. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

Japan can be America's arsenal

A guest post by Rie Yano. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

Superintelligence is already here, today

It's going to revolutionize science. It also might take control of this planet. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

The shape of the multipolar world is a little clearer

A few thoughts on the new Iran war. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

Roundup #78: Roboliberalism

AI and productivity; Yuppie Fishtank Theory; Global development; American living standards; George Borjas | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

Why does America feel worse than other countries? Crime.

In most ways, the U.S. is a typical rich country. Except for crime. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

The Citrini post is just a scary bedtime story

AI might take your job, but it probably won't crash the economy -- and if it does, we know how to deal with it. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

Does anyone know why we're still doing tariffs?

The ridiculous policy has taken on a life of its own. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

Democratic economic policy in the age of AI

The economy is changing fast. Democrats need to be a rock in the storm. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 3 months ago

China is killing the fish

An environmental danger almost no one is paying attention to. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

Updated thoughts on AI risk

Things have gotten scarier since 2023. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

How technology has already changed the world in my lifetime

A timely repost. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

You are no longer the smartest type of thing on Earth

The coming of AI means that humanity's destiny is (mostly) out of our hands. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

Roundup #77: The Fix-Everything Button

BART fare gates; AI and jobs, again; Tariffs and trade deficits; Jon Stewart vs. the economists; H-1Bs; Japan's fiscal position | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

The Takaichi Era begins for real

Japan is leaving its pacifist era behind. That creates some interesting economic opportunities. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

Why America's extremes will both fail

The right narrows its coalition, while the left parasitizes its patrons | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

The Fall of the Nerds

The age of humans who could think like computers is drawing to a close. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

What a liberal immigration enforcement policy might look like

Democrats need to think beyond progressive pugnacity. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

International financial anarchy

What happens after the Age of the Dollar ends? | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

What if AI succeeds but OpenAI fails?

A few thoughts on the AI race. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

No, China doesn't plan 1000 years ahead

A timely repost. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

Let the Chinese cars in

There's a way to do it so that the benefits outweigh the costs. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

Roundup #76: Great Powers acting stupid

Another ICE killing; Xi's Great Purge; Russian losses; America against science; India electrifies; Leftist economics | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

What happens if the world pulls its money out of America?

The more Trump makes it clear that America is not what it used to be, the more likely capital flight becomes. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

Let's save the human species!

There's probably a solution out there to fertility decline. Let's find it! | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

Resistance is necessary, but it's not enough

In the face of Trump's authoritarianism, liberals need a principled movement and a plan for governance. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 4 months ago

Zero-sum economics keeps failing

The world is not a lump of "resources" | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

Trapped in the hell of social comparison

A hypothesis about why Americans are unhappy with their economy. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

Roundup #75: Checking in on the Bad Guys

Iran; China vs. India; Russia; Leaving California; Reduced hiring; Indian development; Wind energy; Science funding | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

Gangster affordability

Trump's strategy for bringing down prices might work in the short term, but the long-term costs will be high. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

Why are federal agents gunning down Americans in the streets?

The shooting of Renee Good, like all of the ICE abuses, is symptomatic of a deeper mental illness. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

America must embrace the Electric Age, or fall behind

When it comes to technology, listen to Elon Musk. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

Welcome to Chaos World

The global order is disintegrating. What's next? | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

Where does a liberal go from here?

Our movement overreached and crashed. But the fundamental ideals are still just as powerful. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

America's chip export controls are working

Don't be fooled by the people who say we should sell China everything we've got. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

At least five interesting things: Buy Local edition (#74)

Abundance and small business; Luxury housing and rent; Tariffs and the economy; Fraud; Math anxiety; Chinese robots | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

The Weeb Economy

The entire new section of my book. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

Ten things that are going right in America

Is our society slowly putting itself back together? | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

Why Everyone Loves Japan

Part III of my book on the Japanese economy. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

Why Europe should resist the Second China Shock

Deindustrialization sounds peaceful and easy and pleasant, but it's not. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago

America has to feel fair

If people don't believe that anti-discrimination law protects them, they will turn to racial bloc politics. | Continue reading


@noahpinion.blog | 5 months ago