Thursday Tweets -- "Where's Cricket?"

Kristi Noem: The politician who has the guts to tell you to kill your dog. https://t.co/u68uxR3b4o — Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) April 27, 2024 Trump VP contender Kristi Noem defends shooting her puppy to death, saying it makes her “tough” pic.twitter.com/BofGjW41Wh — Biden-Harris H … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 6 months ago

Anti-tax mania

This is Joseph. Canada recently proposed an increased capital gains tax: Under the proposal, the inclusion rate for annual capital gains realized above $250,000 for individuals would be taxed at a rate of two-thirds, up from the current 50 per cent. Any gains under that bar would … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 6 months ago

Trump on Trial - - as always, keep an eye on the secondary and tertiary effects

For around two years now, we've been hammering the point that much of the political impact of Dobbs would be from the secondary and tertiary affects the ruling. Secondary and tertiary is mainly where the unintended consequences lurk, women with miscarriages being denied urgent me … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Six ago at the blog -- Old Tech April (and why we care)

Regular readers of the blog have probably noticed that I am at least mildly obsessed with the technology of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We have run countless posts largely consisting of pictures and often articles from Scientific American published from 1880 to 1910. … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

This is been building for a long time, but...

... things are suddenly starting to pop. I'm not going to try to make sense of all. For now, I'm just going to share some quotes and links and a few quick observations. For years now, lots of people have been getting fed up with the New York Times. I'm not talking about bomb thro … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Should we take Goldwater seriously but not literally?

As I said before, I don't want to make too much of this analogy, but you could do multiple of these ads just on Trump's abortion quotes. | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Dobbs is forcing reality on the abortion narrative

Exceptional call-a-spade-a-spade reporting by TPM's Kate Riga On Wednesday, the right-wing justices really preferred the safe world of legal abstraction, where they could pretend that Idaho’s abortion ban — which only has an exception to save the woman’s life — won’t inevitably l … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

I remain a YIMBY skeptic -- granny flat edition

[For those who came in late, here's a checklist for (most) of our YIMBY/NIMBY thread.] One of the main points in our voice-in-the-wilderness housing thread was that, with many of the YIMBY movement's highly touted solutions, the sign was almost certainly right but the promised ma … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Tuesday tweets -- politics, math, fun with creepy chickens

To Russia with Love... We start out with, I kid you not, a MAGA letter of apology to Moscow. I originally was 80% to 90% certain that Eagleman was a parody account like Three Year Letterman, but I checked and -- God help us -- this is real. Same shit, different day. pic.twitter.c … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

If a google search of "finger guillotine" and your product's name calls up multiple videos, you may have a PR problem

In terms of brand disasters, if the Edsel and the DeLorean had a child, it would be the Cyber truck. In terms of impact on the company, it would bearing much stronger resemblance to the latter. At the end of last week, Tesla was Trading under $150 a share, down over 40% for the y … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Alex, what is Fear/Overcompensation/Laziness/Self-interest/Insularity/Cognitive Dissonance?*

How news organizations filled with smart, dedicated, ridiculously overqualified people can be manipulated into making serious and seemingly stupid mistakes. Uri Berliner's controversial article about his now former employer, NPR, didn't have much to recommend it directly, but it … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Six years ago at the blog -- Old Tech April

The more you read about what people thought about technological progress one hundred and twenty or thirty years ago, the more you come to question the standard line that technology always exceeds our expectations. Tuesday, April 17, 2018 People in the late 19th century fully expe … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Long deferred Tuesday Tweets (trust me, you need to check out the gorilla clip)

This, my friends, is a soundbite. On the house floor today Laurel Libby (R-Auburn) stated "Let’s talk about the nazis…I would like to know what they did that was illegal." We won't stand for this MAGA extremism in Maine. Check out who we have running against her: https://t.co/d9J … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Elon Musk got a call from his portfolio manager and the manager said "I have some good news and some bad news, which do you want first?"

Musk said "Let's get the bad news over with first" So the manager sends him a link. Musk is quiet for a long time. Then he takes a deep breath and asks, "What's the good news?" The manager sends him another link... ... and says "You could have invested in DJT." For those who insi … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Twelve years ago at the blog -- "Comics are weird" (with apologies to Bob Chipman)

Friday, April 15, 2011 Weekend pop culture blogging -- comic strip edition The birth of a medium invariably consists overwhelmingly of crap (think Sturgeon's Law raised to the next level), but new media also has a way of producing the occasional work on stunning originality. An o … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Viewing Recommendation

  | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

I don't want to extend the analogy to the outcome...

... or try to draw too many inferences from the similarities, but there are some notable parallels between this election and 1964. In the years that followed the election there was (perhaps still is) a tendency to get all warm and fuzzy about Goldwater. It's easy to forget what a … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Six years ago at the blog -- old tech April (stentor edition, 1907)

It's a shame "stentor" didn't catch on One of the conclusions I've come to after digging though the history of 19th and 20th century technology is that when there's a real demand for specific functionality, it will express itself as soon as (and sometimes even before) the technol … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Arizona -- this was not what I was planning on writing when I got up this morning

I had a fun repost of some cool turn-of-the-century tech ready to go then this happened... Phillip: That Arizona law is nearly 160 years old. Lawmakers wrote it when Arizona was not even a state, when Abraham Lincoln was still alive, when professional baseball did not exist. When … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

A few points and a lot of tweets about abortion

Despite predictions in the immediate aftermath of Dobbs that abortion would not be that big a deal compared to issues like inflation, it has only grown in importance. Republicans are scared and Democrats are smelling blood because there is no position for GOP politicians in any b … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

If I had a slightly cynical attitude toward Elon Musk, I might be a bit suspicious of a couple of things here

First of all, there's the timing of this. The surprise Robo Taxi announcement certainly came at a fortuitous moment for Musk. Before the news broke, Tesla was having a really bad, awful, totally nogood year ... ... followed by a really bad, awful, totally nogood day thanks to the … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Six years ago at the blog -- old tech April (before you get too judgemental remember Theranos edition)

"EMPLOYMENT OF HIGH-FREQUENCY CURRENTS IN THERAPEUTICS." I was about to start speculating about the propensity of Turn of the Century scientists to announce major discoveries only to have the effect sizes later turn out to vanish entirely, but then I realized I wasn't entirely su … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

A Few More Thoughts on Florida

Josh Marshall had a recent post entitled "A Few Thoughts on Florida" that closed with this: Then we get to the question of the potential impact on the November election in Florida. I’d guess it could be fairly significant. We’ve all kind of concluded that Florida is now a red sta … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Six years ago at the blog -- old tech April (the one who wasn't Georges Méliès edition)

Segundo de Chomón and the pushbutton age Regular readers have noticed we've been spending a lot time on the history of technology, particularly the explosive changes around the late 19th and early 20th centuries. One of the things I find most fascinating about the period is the n … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Abortion and IVF -- more data points

Last Friday's post was running long so I decided to put the reproductive rights tweets in a post of their own. Lots of political analysts argued in the wake of Dobbs that this issue wouldn't be that big of a deal. One of the many mistakes they made was assuming that support for a … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 7 months ago

Six years ago at the blog -- old tech April (Muzak edition)

Muzak has been around a disturbingly long time. As previously mentioned, there is a popular narrative among those trying to explain away the apparent failure of a new technology. The story goes that the under-performance is not due to the technology being badly designed or servin … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Deferred Thursday Tweets -- Lava herders, Lawrence Welk, and why Sydney Sweeney should write for the Upshot

Starting off with a follow-up to Joseph's earlier post. Very much worth a listen. Rampell: I’m surprised that Kevin wasting his good name defending fraud and lies… pic.twitter.com/DVWJ5MKhTA — Acyn (@Acyn) March 19, 2024 PayPal Mafia and PayPal Mafia adjacent As mentioned before, … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Ten years ago at the blog -- reposted partially because the SAT is back in the news but mainly because this is one of my all time favorite titles

Tuesday, April 1, 2014 Being a management consultant who does not suffer fools is like being an EMT who faints at the sight of blood An April 1st post on foolishness. When [David] Coleman attended Stuyvesant High in Manhattan, he was a member of the championship debate team, and … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Sure Reuters, MSNBC, CNN, Stephen Colbert, and many others are beating the NYT to the biggest political payoff of the 21st century, but I'm sure the gray lady will convince people it broke the story

UPDATED (Anyone else remember Pam Bondi?) In case you haven't heard, Donald Trump's net worth just got much bigger. Incredible. Trump’s Republican billionaire skeptic became his Republican billionaire friend by giving him billions of dollars in exchange for policy favors on TikTo … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Victimless crimes

This is Joseph. One interesting development in the Trump justice process, despite his generally favorable treatment, is that it challenges people's intuitions about how the justice system works. I have long understood that there are a lot of things that are illegal that seem like … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Twelve years ago at the blog -- a rare double post day on the growth fetish.

Of course, the 2012 me had no idea what kind of VC-driven insanity the 2024 me would witness. Thursday, March 22, 2012 Venture capital and the growth fetish Felix Salmon has another smart post on venture capital and the way he feels it distorts American business: Another way to l … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Is it money that matters? -- More Data Points

Remember what we've been saying about range of data? To the extent that political scientists understand the effect of money on elections, it's an understanding limited to the precedented (or at least its general neighborhood). That's how predictive modeling works, at least the ki … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Six(ish) years ago at the blog -- with Elon it's always déjà vu all over again

Starship will have a small spin on the way to Mars. Even a tiny gravity vector is better than none. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 6, 2024 With a radius of less than ten meters, any perceptible spin will only serve to make the crew sick. That's not to say that there aren't reasons … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

A few Wednesday morning data points

As we've discussed at some length, there is a strange inconsistency in much of the mainstream media's coverage of the election (actually, there are many strange inconsistencies, but we'll just focus when one for the moment). In the run-up to the primaries, papers like the New Yor … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

A couple of more red flags for "the Tesla of education companies"

Something about this tweet was familiar... First story with @NehaWadekar is here https://t.co/2Hair2LKEY — Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) March 14, 2024 It took me a minute to realize that we had written about Bridge in two posts back in 2017. Bring red flags, lots of red flags – part I: … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

No, the AARO report shouldn't make you more of a believer in alien visitors

When talking about alien visitation believers, Tyler Cowen is definitely one of the sharp ones. He's a smart guy. As far as I can tell, he never fell for Grusch and company's transparently absurd claims (which puts him one up on the New York Times). He was also one of the few bel … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

This clip has pi, Trump, Elon and "a nearly decade-long conspiracy to breed 'giant sheep hybrids,'" how can I not post it?

Pretty much average for a Colbert monologue, but it connects with four of our favorite topics. (how does the fourth tie in? Check out the artist's rendering of the giant sheep hybrid after the break. Assuming the jump break still works on Blogger.) | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Finally, a constitutional crisis we can have some fun with

This was originally part of our Tuesday tweets post, but I decided the ETs deserved a spot of their own. UFO believers have been having a bad couple of weeks. For starters, once highly respected astrophysicist Avi Loeb watched still more of his reputation go into the wood chipper … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Twelve years ago at the blog -- independence vs. contrarianism

We really should have come back to this one more often. We also should have spent more time reminding everyone what a terrible writer, thinker, and human being Steven Landsburg is. Not to be confused with Steve Landesberg. That guy was great. Friday, March 16, 2012 How our inabil … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Ramifications of a bust-out

A "bust out" is a fraud tactic, commonly used in the organized crime world, wherein a business' assets and lines of credit are exploited and exhausted to the point of insolvency. from Wikipedia. Subject to debate: Trump’s takeover of The RNC will make it much easier for the Dems … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

"Elon Musk won the New Republic's Man of the Year?" "Close" -- the return of Tuesday tweets

Polls... Still can't get over this. FL Atlantic Univ released a poll of Minnesota with a sample size of 125 people; Vermont 111; Colorado 170. That's just not how this works. — Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) March 9, 2024 ... and politics Did Biden’s State of the Union address ease con … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Reposted as a protest against losing an hour of weekend.

Three Proposed Changes to Daylight Savings Time The first (from XKCD's Randall Munroe) has some obvious issues. Monroe also suggests an alternate solution in the title text, averaging out the spring and fall changes and setting clocks 39 minutes ahead year-round. While Monroe's 3 … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

"Better than Ezra"

Like Frank Bruni, Ezra Klein is a good soldier. I doubt that deep down Klein believes that we really need to seriously entertain claims of warehouses full of alien bodies and football field sized spaceships acquired by the government through a conspiracy involving Mussolini, the … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

How the New York Times defines bias (sorry I took so long to get around to this one)

Former NYT editorial page editor James Bennet's book length op-ed is stunningly bad by every standard we would conventionally use to judging editorial. I sent a link to a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist I greatly respect (I quote him often enough you may be able to guess who). … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Undecideds, "Undecideds," and Shy Voters

Michigan is the fourth state in a row Trump has underperformed public polling. Trump and the GOP are weak, not strong. They've been having performance problems since Dobbs, and we are seeing these problems, their struggle, in early 2024. More 👇https://t.co/6fa2YKK1V1 — Si … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Erle Stanley Gardner's complaints about how the police define evidence...

... apply to more than just the police. From Gardner's Up for Grabs | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 8 months ago

Politics and Jobs

This is Joseph.So I think that this line of thinking is misguided:Why? Well, the first problem is that purity tests, in general, have a tendency to be abused. The question of whether one's political beliefs make one capable of doing a job, seem like something that goes wrong. Eve … | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 10 months ago

Merry Christmas from Little Nemo

  And make sure to drive safely. | Continue reading


@observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com | 11 months ago