In Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector (forthcoming) Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce of the Federal Reserve Board write: The unprecedented increase in tariffs imposed by the United States against its major trading pa … | Continue reading

Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode summary: Kyla Scanlon has made it her personal mission to bring economics education to a larger audience through social media. She publishes daily content across TikTok, YouTube, Substack, LinkedIn and more, explaining … | Continue reading

Since 2000, pharmaceuticals for common psychiatric conditions aged out of patent protection. After generic entry, supply increases as more sellers enter the market, leading to lower prices – about 80-85% less! Cheaper prescriptions and more treatment are the stated goal of polici … | Continue reading

Sadly, there is, once again, no still photographer on this year's list of MacArthur Fellows. There often isn't, but for some reason this year it feels more elegiac—the recipients' list is often carefully crafted for inclusiveness, gender balance, and of... | Continue reading

Doctors were given cases to diagnose, with half getting GPT-4 access to help. The control group got 73% right & the GPT-4 group 77%. No big difference. But GPT-4 alone got 92%. The doctors didn’t want to listen to the AI. Here is more from Ethan Mollick. And now the tweet is repo … | Continue reading

There's a nice article in the September 23rd issue of The New Yorker about Grant Petersen, of Rivendell Bicycle Works, in Walnut Creek, California, East of Berkeley. Grant used to be a TOP reader. He commented for a period of... Related Stories Official Intergalactic YouTube Vide … | Continue reading

This is the picture I told you about the other day. It was earlier in the morning than I usually get out; the water was warm, the September air was cold, so there were thick clouds blanketing the Lake. Otherwise,... Related Stories iPhone Photo New Work Mystery Pic | Continue reading

I have a job today! I mean a photo assignment for pay. First time since B.C. (Before COVID). I wonder how my allegiance to truth and reality will hold up in the face of pleasing the client. I'm joking. I... Related Stories The Last Day of Summer A Day With the Dogs Anyone Have An … | Continue reading

I don't have a home for this little OT squib, so I'm just going to throw it out here. International Intergalactic YouTube Video Excellence Award: "Top 5 Wealth Killers You Need to Avoid At All Costs" from the channel Humphrey... Related Stories Will You Need the Nikon Z7 Mark III … | Continue reading

As you know the Leica "Q" series is a sequence of fixed-lens 24x36mm-sensor compact cameras that punch above their weight; they get more attention, love, and customer satisfaction from photographers than their sales numbers and spec sheets would predict. Most... Related Stories T … | Continue reading

Comments are all moderated as of 3:45 on Wednesday the 25th. Hosannas. That was hard. I had a cascade of technical difficulties this week; to start with I apologize if you got locked out of the website or if it... Related Stories Robert Frank by Barry Kornbluh Blog Note: New Week … | Continue reading

Remember this post from 2019? I had wrongly identified the picture of Robert Frank as a self-portrait. Today I learned that the photograph was actually taken by Barry Kornbluh, who kindly gave his permission for it to be kept up,... Related Stories Blog Note: New Weekend Blog Not … | Continue reading

A priest, a pastor, and a rabbit walk into a blood bank. Nurse says to the rabbit, "What's your blood type?" The rabbit says, "I might be a Type O." I don't often post jokes, but I liked that. Gifts... | Continue reading

As a followup to the previous post, two items: first, Oren reminded me that the Met Fifth Avenue had an excellent show in 2012–13 called "Faking It: Manipulated Photography Before Photoshop." A pretty extensive selection is still online, with writeups,... Related Stories Free Mon … | Continue reading

William Mortensen, Human Relations, bromoil transfer print through textured screen. Allegedly inspired because he was angry about a long distance phone bill. I don't mean to stir up a bitter old argument, but I thought I'd address one little question*.... Related Stories Disillus … | Continue reading

1. Stanford remote work conference will be held in person. 2. What the other people say too. 3. What is bottlenecking progress in chemistry? 4. Prizes for submitting difficult questions for AIs. 5. Can AI improve health care pricing? 6. Some new and important YIMBY vs. NIMBY resu … | Continue reading

Fusion energy is currently facing many of the same opportunities and challenges as the biotechnology industry of the 1970s: exciting scientific and engineering breakthroughs that could change the course of human history, with sufficient public and private funding, more effective … | Continue reading

Here is the link, in Portuguese, here is part of a Claude translation: We, the undersigned, wish to express our deep concern about the ongoing attacks by Big Tech companies and their allies against Brazil’s digital sovereignty. The Brazilian judiciary’s dispute with Elon Musk is … | Continue reading

Just a brief note about...disillusion. These days, I have high-on-photography days and I have down-on-photography days. On my bad photography days, I can get so I'm just not sure how I feel about "photography" any more. I hate to say... Related Stories In It For Love Robert Elswi … | Continue reading

Moderated by Bari Weiss, here it is. I teamed with Katherine Mangu-Ward, vs. David Leonhardt and Bhaskar Sunkara. The post Ungated audio of my American dream debate appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Comments In reply to jasonl. I’ll note that your response is still ... by Jo … | Continue reading

When Mexicans arrive at voting booths next year to elect their judges for the first time, they face a unique and daunting task. In the capital Mexico City, voters will have to choose judges for more than 150 positions, including on the Supreme Court, from a list of 1,000 candidat … | Continue reading

1. “About 27% of firms using AI report replacing worker tasks, but only about 5% experience employment change due to AI use.” 2. Who is the greatest British novelist of all time? You get to vote, too. 3. How far can Irvine (CA) go? 4. How and why drug traffickers are infiltrating … | Continue reading

A major sign of Chinese economic malaise: In 2018, 51,302 new startups were founded in China. Last year, that number dropped to 1,202. Here is one link, leading to others. Here is an attempt to talk down the relevance of those numbers. I would mention that initially there were fa … | Continue reading

Recent research finds that most people want lower housing prices but, contrary to expert consensus, do not believe that more supply would lower prices. This study tests the effects of four informational interventions on Americans’ beliefs about housing markets and associated poli … | Continue reading

Today I woke up without an idea in my head. When I was 14 or 15 years old, my father pushed me to take a three-day analysis of aptitudes from a research foundation in Washington, D.C. founded by an interesting... Related Stories 'Nadia' (Music Notes) Too Soon Alt, Too Late Schmar … | Continue reading

By Eric Pichet, here is the abstract: Despite attempts to ‘unwind’ the Impôt de Solidarité sur la Fortune (‘Solidarity Wealth Tax,’ the French wealth tax) during the last legislature (2002-2007), ISF yields had soared by 2006, jumping from €2.5 billion in 2002 to €3.6 billion. An … | Continue reading

I do not in general trust such methods, but the conclusions are not unwelcome to me: I provide new empirical estimates of the effect of state capacity on economic development across countries over the period 1960–2022. Specifically, I construct a comprehensive state capacity inde … | Continue reading

1. Markets in church real estate. You can expect their business to grow. 2. Not Quite Past. For instance, make your own Delftware using AI. Here is further information. 3. Smart goose deterrent system. 4. Tracking SEC inquiries using geolocation data. 5. Metformin investigations … | Continue reading

Good op-ed from Arthur Herman and Aparna Pande: [H]ow America approaches its relations with India — the world’s largest democracy, its most populous nation and very soon its third-largest economy — may determine the balance of global power for the 21st century…As the U.S. looks f … | Continue reading

What if an LLM read all my writing, listened to all my podcast appearances, and perhaps even to some of my private or semi-private conversations, and then placed hundreds of micro-bets for me, updating them as my own thinking evolved? What if LLMs did this for everyone who cares … | Continue reading

Did you worry about the 2020 fall in U.S. fertility? Well, ponder this: Birth rates in Canada and the USA declined sharply in March 2020 and deviated from historical trends. This decline was absent in similarly developed European countries. We argue that the selective decline was … | Continue reading

1. A new mode of national defense for Europe? 2. AI creating a ten-minute podcast on how to practice thinking. Some good advice in there! 3. Robert Moses, The Power Broker, finally coming to eBook September 16. 4. John Stossel on election prediction markets. 5. Why is fiction no … | Continue reading

1. Is there a rationale for natural monopoly regulation in AI services? 2. Three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk. I don’t agree with everything in there, but quite an interesting piece, forthcoming in Ethics by David Thorstad. 3. Claims about o1. 4. Good art … | Continue reading