And PBoC acts. Data accessed 9:30pm Central. Source: Bloomberg. Graphical depiction: Source: Bloomberg. PBoC drops rates just before the release of these numbers. Source: Bloomberg. The yuan also drops. | Continue reading
Total PPI 2.4% vs 2.6% y/y Bloomberg consensus (0.1% vs 0.4% core.) Signal or not for future core CPI? Figure 1: Headline CPI m/m annualized inflation (black), core CPI instantaneous (T=12, a=4) (blue), core PPI instantaneous (T=12, a=4) (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recessi … | Continue reading
My wife Laura Schwendinger, and Ginger Strand, were awarded this prize by the American Academy of Arts and Letters, for their opera Artemisia. From yesterday’s NYT: | Continue reading
That’s the title of a conference in Padova, September 21-22. Call for papers (deadline 5/31!). The COVID-19 pandemic and the 40-year high inflation rate have triggered massive spikes in risk and uncertainty and raised many challenges for macroeconomic modelers and forecasters. A … | Continue reading
From Zeng and Ryan at DeutscheBank yesterday. Source: Zeng, Ryan, Debt Ceiling Developments Weekly Tracker, May 22, 2023. There are no days before June 5 when both House and Senate are in session. Both houses are in session on June 6-8, 12-15, 20-23. Little sign of pressure in eq … | Continue reading
Decidedly up in the latter, even up relative to 2022M02 in the former. Figure 1: Real average hourly earnings in total private (blue, left log scale), and in leisure and hospitality (tan, right log scale), in 1982-84$, s.a. April figures deflated using Cleveland Fed nowcast for C … | Continue reading
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, but still down relative to mid-2022. Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of C … | Continue reading
While year-on-year core rose, month-on-month fell, along with other measures of inflation that are aimed at getting the trend. Figure 1: Month-on-month headline CPI inflation (bold black), core (tan), trimmed mean (red), and median (blue); and instantaneous inflation following Ee … | Continue reading
Wisconsin GDP growth slackened in 2022Q2-Q3, lagging the national deceleration. Figure 1: US GDP (blue), GDPNow for 2023Q1 (light blue square), Wisconsin GDP (red), and Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast (pink squares), all in logs, 2021Q4=0. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed (3/31), Dep … | Continue reading
Pretty unique, in terms of size, and the combination of uninsured deposits and held-to-maturity securities. From the Economist: | Continue reading
Term spreads rising slightly, yields (nominal, real) down, and risk measures up. One nominal rates have dived; real rates as well, suggesting the bulk of the movement is movement in perceived future economic activity. Figure 1: Top panel: 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (blue), 10yr-2 … | Continue reading
M/M core CPI inflation surprised on the upside (0.5 ppts vs. 0.4 ppts Bloomberg consensus) while m/m headline at consensus. The path of the Fed funds as indicated by futures barely budged. Figure 1: Effective Fed funds (black), CME futures implied as of 3/13 12:20CT (red square), … | Continue reading
Consider the following model (from ): Where Do the following graphs of GDP, productivity shocks (ΔA) and unemployment benefits (Δθ) make sense in the context of the neoclassical model? That is, do the series in the bottom two graphs seem to explain the behavior in the series (e. … | Continue reading
Linda Goldberg and Signe Krogstrup have a revised version of a paper entitled “International Capital Flow Pressures and Global Factors”. They write: we revisit these issues by recognizing that the observed responses of quantities of capital flows, exchange rates, and domestic mon … | Continue reading
With the release of the January 2023 Employment Situation release incorporating benchmark revisions we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit/SP Global monthly GDP (released on Wednesday) … | Continue reading
The Employment Situation release for January 2023 incorporated annual benchmark revisions to establishment survey series, and reported population controls for the household survey series. NFP at 517 thousand exceeded the Bloomberg consensus of 115 thousand. Here’s nonfarm payroll … | Continue reading