OpenAI DevDay was this week. What delicious and/or terrifying things await? Turbo Boost First off, we have GPT-4-Turbo. Today we’re launching a preview of the next generation of this model, GPT-4 Turbo. GPT-4 Turbo is more capable and has knowledge … Continue reading → | Continue reading
There are a lot of ludicrously terrible government laws, regulations and policies across all the domains of life. My Covid posts have covered quite a lot of them. Yet if I had to pick one policy th… | Continue reading
Rather than attempt a synthesis this time around, I’m going to experiment with the opposite. Over the course of the last three weeks, I kept adding to a long list of sources and interesting things … | Continue reading
This is a follow-up post to the last section of Ukraine Post #2 on the need for Better Decision Theory. In particular I want to think more about the following result and some resulting logic and ex… | Continue reading
[Note: While I do intend to write more about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this post is intended to address this only indirectly rather than directly, by helping illustrate how to find other source… | Continue reading
I have fallen mildly ill, as have my wife and son. So far we don’t have a positive Covid-19 test, and everyone is maximally vaccinated, but given the timing the obvious conclusions do seem likely. … | Continue reading
Previous Omicron updates: #1, #2, #3. Last weekly non-Omicron update. An introductory word: Thanks to Dominic Cummings, I have a lot of new readers, many from the United Kingdom, so I want to welco… | Continue reading
A miracle occurred this week. Everyone I have talked to about it, myself included, is shocked that it happened. It’s important to Understand what happened.Make sure everyone knows it ha… | Continue reading
I finally got my booster shot yesterday. I intended to get it three weeks ago, but there was so much going on continuously that I ended up waiting until I could afford to be knocked out for a day i… | Continue reading
Epistemic Status: Reference. Expanded From: Against Facebook, as the post originally intended. Some things are fundamentally Out to Get You. They seek resources at your expense. Fees are hidden. E… | Continue reading
A year ago, there were reports coming out of China about a new coronavirus. Various people were saying things about exponential growth and the inevitability of a new pandemic, and urging action be … | Continue reading
Data source: | Continue reading
Previously: Something Was Wrong, Book Review: The Elephant in the Brain Previously (Compass Rose): The Order of the Soul Epistemic Status: No, seriously. Also literally. They sentenced me to twenty… | Continue reading
Previously in sequence and most on point: What is Success in an Immoral Maze?, How to Identify an Immoral Maze This post deals with the goal of avoiding or escaping being trapped in an immoral maze… | Continue reading
Previously in sequence: Moloch Hasn’t Won, Perfect Competition, Imperfect Competition, Does Big Business Hate Your Family?, What is Life in an Immoral Maze?, Stripping Away the Protections, What is… | Continue reading
Reading and actually paying attention to Moral Mazes is hard. Writing carefully about it is even harder. I effectively spent several months forcing my way through the book, because it seemed import… | Continue reading
Previously in Sequence: Moloch Hasn’t Won, Perfect Competition, Imperfect Competition The book Moral Mazes describes the world of managers in several large American corporations. They are placed in… | Continue reading
Previously: Choices are Bad, Change Is Bad Meta Note: Early drafts were too complex. Complexity is Bad. I simplified. Mark Rosewater, head of design at Magic: The Gathering who I recently praised f… | Continue reading
Previously: Card Balance and Artifact, Artifact Embraces Card Balance Changes, Review: Artifact Epistemic Status: Looks pretty dead Artifact had every advantage. Artifact should have been great. Ar… | Continue reading
Most free-to-play games, especially mobile free-to-play games, use similar models to extract revenue and keep players coming back. These models work by creating toxic trade-offs that are central to… | Continue reading
Epistemic Status: Reference post. Strong beliefs strongly held after much thought, but hard to explain well. Intentionally abstract. Disambiguation: This does not refer to any physical good, app or… | Continue reading
Response To (Marginal Revolution): Counterfactuals about Social Media See also: Against Facebook, Against Facebook: Comparison to Alternatives and Call to Action The idea that the primary problem w… | Continue reading
Analysis of the paper: Less Competition, More Meritocracy (hat tip: Marginal Revolution: Can Less Competition Mean More Meritocracy?) Epistemic Status: Consider the horse as if it was not a three m… | Continue reading
Response To (Marginal Revolution): If you love prediction markets you should love the art world. Previously on prediction markets: Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?, Subsidizing Prediction Mar… | Continue reading
Epistemic Status: Reference Post / Introduction The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine how big one should wager on a given proposition when given the opportunity. It is elegant, important an… | Continue reading
Previously (Marginal Revolution): Gambling Can Save Science A study was done to attempt to replicate 21 studies published in Science and Nature. Beforehand, prediction markets were used to see whi… | Continue reading
Previously (Compass Rose): Culture, Interpretive Labor, and Tidying One’s Room Epistemic Status: A bit messy “She’s tidied up and I can’t find anything! All my tubes and wir… | Continue reading