Europe’s centrist political class is looking anxiously towards elections for the European Parliament in 2024. What they fear is a “lurch” to the far-right. In Germany the AfD has surged to joint second place with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD in the polls. At 19 percent the AfD’s … | Continue reading

Lamar Dodd, European Hillside 1957 Source: Whitney Museum Brad Setser on why the funding crunch that many of us feared in the pandemic is actually happening now. | Continue reading

Following a panel at Davos on deglobalisation and a flurry of comment about polycrisis, I picked up those themes in my monthly column for the FT. Thanks to my lovely editors, the piece was squeezed into the paper on Tuesday. In this newsletter I want to tease out some of the poin … | Continue reading

“In some periods they explain practically all major events, and in most periods they explain a great deal … But even greater than the causal is the symptomatic significance of fiscal history. The spirit of the people, its cultural level, its social structure, the deeds its policy … | Continue reading

After a year of political turmoil and financial embarrassment, Britain ends 2022 shaken. There is a new spate of talk about national decline. Once again the UK is falling behind. The outlook is uncertain. It is symptomatic that Perry Anderson chose to author yet another gigantic … | Continue reading

In response to the surge in prices that began in earnest in the summer of 2021 central banks all around the world are hiking interest rates. When taken together, a series of national policy moves add up to the most widespread tightening of monetary policy since the start of the f … | Continue reading

Bitcoin has no reason to exist. It delivers no meaningful benefit for society. It is a form of gambling, propelled by naked greed and generating vast quantities of CO2 emissions. This was the uncompromising and hostile position towards crypto taken on behalf of the ECB by Executi … | Continue reading

What is the future of the dollar-based financial order in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Are we entering a new financial and economic regime? Will it be a regime of inflation? How safe are US Treasuries as a vehicle for investment? A lot of folks are struggling with these … | Continue reading

How do you weigh the effectiveness of an economic weapon? How do you gauge the likely impact on your antagonist? How do you assess the cost to yourself? As Nick Mulder has shown us in his powerful new history of the economic weapon, the calculus of sanctions is one of the importa … | Continue reading

The start of a new regime? | Continue reading

or ... the history of a natural experiment. | Continue reading

Economic history of World War II and the 18th Brumaire | Continue reading

Talking (and reading) about Bitcoin | Continue reading