Apple’s best quarter in years, albeit with a warning label. July 31, 2026 Asymco One Office Hours, recorded day after Apple’s Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings call, Tim Cook’s last as CEO. Horace Dediu presents his analysis of the quarter and takes questions from Asymco One subscribers. H … | Continue reading
Surgical Experience, Efficiency, and Cost It was an honor to collaborate with Dr. Bobby Korn of USCD, Dr. Tommy Korn of Sharp Healthcare, and Nahia Jalbout, Rolika Bansal, Marissa Shoji, Sarah Cheng, Alessia D’Urso, Hetal Hosalkar, Catherine Liu, Don O. Kikkawa, and Ryan Broderic … | Continue reading
Why there is no Apple Car, four valuation perspectives, the June-quarter consensus, $5 trillion, Goldman's $370 target, the AI-bubble debate, and Tim Cook's final earnings week. | Continue reading
I would say they will simply collect all the available profits MacRumors interviewed AI critic Ed Zitron, author of the Where’s Your Ed At newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast, about what could happen to Apple if the costly AI infrastructure boom collapses. Zitron ar … | Continue reading
Today: Friday, July 31 · 12:00pm ET / 9:00am PT Asymco Office Hours Live Q&A with Horace Dediu takes place today at 12pm ET / 9am PT, the day after Apple’s fiscal Q3 2026 earnings call, Tim Cook’s last as CEO. Horace will review the results and their implications, and we will tak … | Continue reading
Capping off a historic week for Apple: Today (Thursday, 30 July)4:00p ET – Market closes. Skim Quarter in Review. 4:15p ET – Watch Horace live on The Close on Bloomberg TV.4:30p ET – Apple Reports FQ3 Earnings5:00p ET – Analyst Earnings Call (Tim Cook’s Last) Tomorrow (Friday, 31 … | Continue reading
final earnings call for Tim Cook as chief executive officer Financial experts expect the brand to post very strong numbers for the quarter. Data from Yahoo Finance shows an average revenue estimate of 108.9 billion dollars across 27 different analysts. The earnings per share esti … | Continue reading
Apple reached $1 trillion market capitalization on August 2nd, 2018, almost exactly eight years ago. Let’s recall what the consensus looked like. The jockeying between Apple and Nvidia reflects a debate about the future of AI that has preoccupied investors this summer. Apple on T … | Continue reading
Join Horace Dediu's Asymco Office Hours Live Q&A on Friday, July 31, 2026, at 12pm ET/9am PT — the day after Apple's Q3 earnings. Subscribers, register now! | Continue reading
Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating on AAPL stock and raised its price target ahead of Q3 FY26 earnings. The analyst raised his price target for AAPL stock to $370 from $330, increasing his valuation multiple to reflect his growing optimism in the company’s iPhone replacement c … | Continue reading
Data, data everywhere but not a conclusion in sight. Is the market overvalued? Two measures to consider are P/E and EV/FCF. Here are those measures for 10 of the largest companies in terms of market capitalization and the overall S&P 500. Note: Amazon EV/FCF is less than negative … | Continue reading
Yahoo, TipRanks and my estimates The graph below is a summary of estimates for revenues and EPS for the June quarter along with the estimates and actual results from the most recent quarter (March). Final results will be available half an hour after markets close on July 30th. Of … | Continue reading
There are some industries that can’t change. Yesterday, Tesla reported its second quarter earnings and there were few surprises. The company’s automotive business is as structurally unsound as ever. Despite automotive deliveries and revenues growing at 25% (from a very weak Y/Y c … | Continue reading
The March quarter will also be diverging Rumor has it that Apple will split the launch of the latest iPhone models across two quarters. The high-end iPhones will be announced as always, in September, but the base models will be released in the following quarter. I don’t know if t … | Continue reading
Memory prices won’t have had a big impact As we move ahead into the June quarter, I’d like to review our outlook, […]. Importantly, the color we’re providing assumes that global tariff rates, policies, and their application remain in effect as of this call [and that] the global m … | Continue reading
One flipped to Buy, one flipped to Sell. By my count 28 say Buy and 20 say Hold or Sell. Apple stock inched lower in pre-market trading on Friday even after HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote Colisson upgraded the iPhone maker to Buy from Hold and raised its price target by about 41% to $ … | Continue reading
Apple gaining share in China Source: IDC NB: Other analysts are reporting similar story globally but with Samsung instead of Huawei as growing (apart from Apple.) | Continue reading
Counterpoint estimating total market sales fell 11% Apple delivered its best second-quarter performance ever, capturing a record-high 20% market share during what traditionally is its slowest quarter of the year. The iPhone 17 series delivered one of the strongest iPhone refresh … | Continue reading
Mark your calendars: Friday July 31. The next Asymco Office Hours Live Q&A will be on Friday, July 31st at 12pm ET / 9am PT, the day after Apple’s fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Call on Thursday. Horace will review the results and their implications, and we will take Q&A from our live a … | Continue reading
One simple trick. Tim Long of Barclays Bank has an underweight (Sell) rating on Apple shares. Apple shares have just hit an all-time high. Perhaps he’s right. Perhaps one should sell high. The problem is that Tim Long has had a sell or hold rating on Apple for many years. As far … | Continue reading
Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Jul 19, 2026. Posted on July 20th. July Office Hours Asymco Office Hours Live Q&A — Friday, July 31 → The next Asymco Office Hours Live Q&A will be on Friday, July 31st at 12pm ET / 9am PT, […] | Continue reading
Take all my money, please. The graph above shows that Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle decided to transfer their shareholders’ wealth to the shareholders of Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom and Applied materials. This is not an exaggeration. Free cash flow is wealth and it be … | Continue reading
Many PlayStation users are considering a switch to PC after Sony announced the end of physical games on its platforms. A reader poll by Push Square, which specializes in PlayStation coverage, has shed light on how fans are feeling about Sony’s next generation console and it shoul … | Continue reading
Getting to 20% CAGR on Wearables When Essilor merged with Luxottica in 2018 the eyewear market was $100 billion. In 2021 it was $150 billion. Last year it was $220 billion, this year it’s estimated at $245 billion and in six year $463 billion. Much of this growth is due to increa … | Continue reading
Cites market share gains and pricing power On Monday, Citi raised its price target on Apple to $365 from $315 while maintaining its Buy rating. The move reflects stronger margin expectations and rolled-forward financial estimates amid what the bank sees as Apple’s continued resil … | Continue reading
RAM-driven hardware cost increases won’t impact long-term revenue gains. In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider on Tuesday, JP Morgan has increased its price target for Apple to $345. This is an increase of $20 from January, when it last raised the stock target price to $325 … | Continue reading
Apple accuses OpenAI, and former design star Jony Ive’s io Products firm, of stealing hardware trade secrets in blockbuster lawsuit Apple sued OpenAI on Friday for allegedly stealing its trade secrets, an extraordinary move that pits the $4.6 trillion iPhone maker against the fas … | Continue reading
Can Apple overtake Dell? Omdia Global shipments of desktops, notebooks, and workstations in 2Q26 declined 3.6% year-over-year to 65.7 million units according to the latest research from Omdia. Shipments of desktops (including desktop workstations) hit 13.9 million, falling 1.3% a … | Continue reading
How Apple Became the Most Defensive Stock in the Market The stock hit an all-time high Thursday as investors look for hedges against massive artificial-intelligence investments elsewhere in the market. Shoring up a portfolio with defensive stocks typically means buying stable nam … | Continue reading
An Office Hours question asked by Fred S, June 9, 2026. Q: With MLX, you can write for Apple Silicon and then migrate to Nvidia’s chips — a kind of reverse Trojan horse, since people usually build tools to migrate the other way. What’s going on there? I’m not an expert on MLX spe … | Continue reading
Hence The Apple Vision Pro Apple plans to disrupt the $200B eyewear market the way it disrupted watches. Swatch fell 28%, Fossil 70%. Smart glasses are targeting late 2027. When Apple launched the Apple Watch in 2015, the mid-tier wristwatch market had a handful of dominant compa … | Continue reading
A first look at the eyewear market To see the future of wearables, I said look to where jewelry has been worn. The places where people trust metal against skin is where compute inevitably will reside. The categories are easily found. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_jeweller … | Continue reading
Broadcom, Apple extend chip supply deal through 2031 July 6, 2026 8:07 AM July 6 (Reuters) – Broadcom said on Monday it has agreed to expand its partnership with Apple through 2031 to develop and supply a range of custom chips, sending the shares of the chipmaker up nearly 4 … | Continue reading
An Office Hours question, June 9, 2026. Q: The Wall Street Journal just ranked Nvidia the top “company of the future,” with Apple down at number 12. What’s going on with Apple’s brand image — and is that ranking right? Look at Nvidia’s history. For most of it, revenue was flat. T … | Continue reading
An Office Hours question asked by Dave Emery, June 9, 2026. Q: Will agentic AI replace the vibrant app economy, consolidating revenue to Apple and the agent providers? Or will it enable a new set of apps? The premise of intent as an operating system is that you assemble the solut … | Continue reading
While most of the other OEMs are struggling, Apple, with its stable pricing, high margins and strong supply chain control, is in the best position to weather the memory crisis and win market share… While most of the other OEMs are struggling, Apple, with its stable pricing, high … | Continue reading
An Office Hours question asked on June 9, 2026. Q: You recently calculated Apple’s CAGR at an impressive 26.6% over the last twenty years. Without giving stock advice, what do you make of Apple’s forward prospects? The point of my article was that more than half of analysts have … | Continue reading
“I’ve never seen a shortage without a subsequent glut, but I’ve seen gluts never followed by a shortage.” -Nassim Taleb A commodity is a product or service which does not increase in price if its performance increases. In a typical commodity exchange (coffee, pork bellies, iron o … | Continue reading
An Office Hours question asked by Dave Emery, June 9, 2026. Q: Are we heading for an AI bust for the large hyperscalers? Or will the spending eventually produce the revenue the advocates promise? And if it’s a bust, how does Apple adjust? There is already revenue — there’s just n … | Continue reading
Overall smartphone shipments in Africa dropped 12% According to Counterpoint Research, overall smartphone shipments in Africa dropped 12% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Factors like rising fuel prices, memory cost-driven price increases, and the region’s extreme price sensitivity con … | Continue reading
A wide-ranging conversation about the 2026 memory-price shock and its consequences for Apple. Six threads worth separating out, each with my take and the verbatim exchange that prompted it. | Continue reading
An Office Hours question asked by Lalit, June 9, 2026. Q: Could some future Apple TV morph into a data center for the family? And what about all the talk about Home and AI? I’ve anticipated the Home story for years, and maybe this is the year. Home needed a big upgrade in intelli … | Continue reading
Exponential increase in performance at a flat price. Is the formula about to change? The iPhone price structure is very carefully constructed. One could even say it’s engineered. It has operated under many constraints: segmentation, margin, scale and market windows. The balance b … | Continue reading
Shares down 63% over 12 months Xiaomi stock price has suffered a major reversal in the last 12 months, moving from a high of H$61.55 to H$22.62 today, its lowest level since September 2024, with its market cap falling from H$1.53 trillion ($192 billion) to $74 billion. This retre … | Continue reading
20 more years at 24%? Summa de arithmetica, geometria, proportioni et proportionalita (Summary of arithmetic, geometry, proportions and proportionality) is a math book written by Luca Pacioli. It is a compendium of the mathematics that was known in Renaissance Italy. This include … | Continue reading
Apple grew at 21%. Global market grew 4% with forecast is 3% growth through 2030 Source: Counterpoint Research NB: 3% growth through 2030 is no growth at all. Non-consumption is catastrophically high and yet Counterpoint projects zero growth over four year. Apple’s share at 23% r … | Continue reading
Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending June 21, 2026. Asymetric Asymetric Podcast: Episode 138 — Watershed → Horace on WWDC 2026, John Ternus’s timing, what we can learn from the candy bar, and Judd’s indifference to origami. Also, World … | Continue reading
Horace on WWDC 2026, John Ternus’s timing, what we can learn from the candy bar, and Judd’s indifference to origami. Also, World Cup predictions. | Continue reading