Worst Housing Affordability“ since 1991 excluding Bubble

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Worst Housing Affordability" since 1991 excluding Bubble Excerpt: I’ve put together ... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 1 year ago

FOMC Minutes: Plans for Reducing the Size of the Balance Sheet

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 15-16, 2022, 2022 . Excerpt on the "Plans for Reducing the Size of the Ba... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force

The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through March 2021. Note: This i... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

Missing Workers by Age Group

In November, Goldman Sachs economists put out a research note on the labor force participation rate: Why Isn’t Labor Force Participation Rec... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

Economic Reasons to Be Thankful

First, thanks to all the healthcare workers and first responders who have been - and still are - on the front lines saving lives. Thank you... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

Investors, Second Homes, and AMH, oh my

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Investor Share of Home Purchases Surges Recent reports from Redfin and Corelogic indicate that the in... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

National House Price Index increased 19.8% year-over-year in August

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3 month average of June, July and August prices). This... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the (US) Economy

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. ... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

Real Personal Income: Transfer Payments

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, July 2021 report yesterday.   The report showed that government transfer payments were st... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

New Home Prices

As part of the new home sales report released this morning, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 16.6% year-over-year in May

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices). This releas... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

The Housing Conundrum

I've seen several housing booms and busts in my life. The biggest boom was the housing bubble in the mid-'00s, and the worst bust followed ... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March

Here is the post earlier on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 13.2% year-over-year in March It has been fif... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 2 years ago

November 21 Covid-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations

Finance and Economics | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 3 years ago

Decline in People Paying Rent

Without further disaster relief, there will a significant housing and financial issue.  From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 91.... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 3 years ago

BLS: CPI decreased 0.1% in May, Core CPI decreased 0.1%

From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after ... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 3 years ago

May Employment 2,500,000 Jobs Added, 13.3% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent , the U.S.... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 3 years ago

US Covid-19 Test Results: Making Progress

Test-and-trace is a key criterion in starting to reopen the country.   My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests ... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

More Than 3.4M Homeowners Now in Covid-19-Related Forbearance Plans

From Black Knight: More than 3.4 Million Homeowners – 6.4% of All Mortgages – Now in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans According to Black K... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around -7% SAAR

Note: The NY Fed Nowcast and Atlanta Fed GDPNow models are based on released data and aren't capturing the collapse in the economy in the 2n... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

Total Number of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Jumped from 2.73% to 3.74%

Note: To put these numbers in perspective, the MBA notes "For the week of March 2, only 0.25% of all loans were in forbearance." From the ... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

The Sudden Economic Stop

I just spoke with a tile sub-contractor who mostly does remodels. He was completely booked for the next several months, and all of his job... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

Fiscal Policies to Address Covid-19

First, some good news on the flu from the CDC: "Key indicators that track flu activity remain high but decreased for the third week in a r... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

Energy expenditures as a percentage of personal consumption expenditures

Note: Back in early 2016, I noted that energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE had hit an all time low. Here is an update through the De... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

New Home Sales at New Cycle High in September

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 733 thousand.    Sales for Septembe... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

Mortgage Delinquencies Fall to Lowest Level in Nearly 25 Years

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Fall to Lowest Level in Nearly 25 Years The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four unit r... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

Problem Bank list increased to 76 Institutions

The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

Personal Income increased 0.5% in May, Spending increased 0.4%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for May: Personal income increased $88.6 billion (0.5 percent) in May according t... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

The War on Data Continues

Three years ago I wrote: The War on Data Unfortunately the war on data has continued unabated, as Catherine Rampell noted last week in the... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

April new home sales up 7% YOY

New home sales for April were reported at 673,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for March were revised up to 723,... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 4 years ago

Update: “Scariest jobs chart ever”

During and following the 2007 recession, every month I posted a graph showing the percent jobs lost during the recession compared to previou... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 5 years ago

Calculated Risk: 10 Economic Questions for 2019

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2018. Below are my ten questions for 2019. I'll follow up with some thoughts on each o... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 5 years ago

Year-To-Date Performance: Employment, Vehicle Sales, New Home Sales

Here are three tables showing year-to-date performance for three key economic metrics: Employment, Vehicle Sales, and New Home Sales. Each... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 5 years ago

NY Fed Q2 Report: “Total Household Debt Rises for 16th Straight Quarter”

From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Rises for 16th Straight Quarter he Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data ... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 5 years ago

California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 3% Year-Over-Year

Here are some Bay Area stats from Pacific Union chief economist Selma Hepp: Finally More Bay Area Housing Inventory After 16 Months of Decli... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 5 years ago

Real House Prices and Price-To-Rent Ratio in March

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.5% year-over-year in March It has been elev... | Continue reading


@calculatedriskblog.com | 5 years ago