With a review of last year’s predictions | Continue reading
We, Gary Marcus, author, scientist, and noted AI skeptic, and Miles Brundage, an independent AI policy researcher who recently left OpenAI and is bullish on AI progress, have agreed to the following bet, at 10:1 odds, with criteria drawn from two earlier Substack essays by Gary t … | Continue reading
Kevin Roose, of Hard Fork and NYT, was so impressed with OpenAI’s rollout that he joked “of course they have to announce AGI the day my vacation starts”. | Continue reading
OpenAI’s new model was revealed yesterday; its most fervent believers think AGI has already arrived. Here’s what you should pay attention to in the coming year. | Continue reading
In early November, I had a stimulating Zoom call with a former OpenAI employee and Berkeley graduate named Suchir Balaji, who had just left OpenAI. | Continue reading
Not yet, but it could come sooner than you think. Not because we are close to AGI, but because we already have machines that can say one thing and do something else altogether. | Continue reading
His continued skepticism of AI skepticism continues to miss the mark | Continue reading
Exactly as I warned in February | Continue reading
When the text-to-image AI generation system DALL-E2 was released in April 2022, the two of us, together with Scott Aaronson, ran some informal experiments to probe its abilities. | Continue reading
What Casey Newton’s new essay skewering AI skepticism does—and does not—get right | Continue reading
It’s not looking good | Continue reading
What kept me going during the dark years of 2022 and 2023 when Generative AI was wildly overhyped and I was constantly ridiculed was the secure knowledge that the truth would eventually come out. | Continue reading
The bullshit just keeps on coming. | Continue reading
Fantastic writeup of my views today at The Wall Street Journal: | Continue reading
Relevant to the post I sent earlier today, https://www.howtogeek.com/is-microsoft-using-your-word-documents-to-train-ai/says that an unnamed spokesperson at Microsoft claims that “Microsoft does not use customer data from Microsoft 365 consumer and commercial applications to trai … | Continue reading
The Great Data Heist continues. | Continue reading
Scaling laws were supposed to be, well, laws. | Continue reading
A textbook case in how good ideas are often initially throttled | Continue reading
A new AI study is making the rounds, claiming that ChatGPT can write poetry that is “indistinguishable” from William Shakespeare. | Continue reading
Converging evidence that the core hypothesis driving generative AI may be wrong | Continue reading
Science, sociology, and the likely financial collapse of the Generative AI bubble | Continue reading
And how our media is failing, wildly, in one of the most important stories in US history | Continue reading
Reality is quite the opposite | Continue reading
The parade of made-up numbers never stops | Continue reading
A tale of two analogies | Continue reading
Two new examples that are quite disconcerting | Continue reading
Important new study from Apple | Continue reading
As you have surely read by now, not one but two Nobel Prizes went to AI this week. | Continue reading
Is AI so valuable to society that we should place this bet? | Continue reading
Here’s Why | Continue reading
Once upon a time OpenAI promised to be a non-profit, pledged to public benefit. | Continue reading
And what that might mean for Generative AI more broadly | Continue reading
Mira Murati’s departure is the just the last episode in a long-running drama | Continue reading
You might be surprised | Continue reading
AI policy *should* be front and center | Continue reading
An inside look. And, spoiler alert, it’s not Q* | Continue reading
Thursday broke my heart. | Continue reading
Video of a new talk | Continue reading
Dear DrFeiFei, | Continue reading
⚠️ Something terrifying just snapped in place: | Continue reading
Crazy day gets crazier | Continue reading
Big day. | Continue reading
An update from the person who first called the bubble | Continue reading
An entire industry has been built - and will collapse - because many people haven’t yet gotten it. | Continue reading
And why that might be a good thing | Continue reading
Damning new study from Upwork | Continue reading
What comes after chatbots? | Continue reading
Regular readers of this Substack will recall that I have never been bullish on OpenAI. Last Fall, I warned that they might someday be known as the WeWork of OpenAI, and in late January I wrote an essay about some of the strong headwinds they faced, despite their seeming invincibi … | Continue reading