Statistical forecasting models that are grounded in empirical data can provide a valuable supplement to more-traditional methods. These tools allow for a more-structured and robust exploration of the future, its implications, and our assumptions about it. | Continue reading
In recent years, Russia has consistently engaged in signaling activities—military actions far short of direct aggression but often creating escalatory risks—toward the United States and its allies. Understanding what drives this behavior can help U.S. efforts to interpret future … | Continue reading
More than 30 million Americans have diabetes, and nearly a quarter of them use insulin to manage their symptoms and prevent life-threatening complications. The price they have to pay for insulin is more than ten times higher than the average prices in 32 other countries combined. | Continue reading
Various AI technologies are ripe for use in disinformation campaigns. Deepfake videos represent an obvious threat, but voice cloning, deepfake images, and generative text also merit concern. And websites now offer access to deepfake services. | Continue reading
A discussion of the inventory management game, Monopologs, which simulates a part of the Air Force supply system. | Continue reading
An examination of the difficulties of simulating cognitive processes on computers. | Continue reading
There are currently no international binding rules that would address growing threats in space. Without more-defined and enforceable rules of war regarding space and space assets, the danger of a destructive conflict in space grows significantly. | Continue reading
North Korea maintains nearly 6,000 artillery systems within range of major South Korean population centers. Five attack scenarios show that casualties could range from 4,500 to more than 200,000. The United States and South Korea should avoid military provocation cycles that coul … | Continue reading
Increasingly isolated and desperate, Putin might try to suddenly escalate the Ukraine conflict rather than back down in the face of international opposition. The United States and its allies must account for the possibility that even in the face of credible deterrent threats Puti … | Continue reading
Despite its vulnerabilities and anxieties, Russia remains a formidable opponent in a few key domains. What non-violent, cost-imposing measures could the United States pursue to stress Russia's economy, its military, and the regime's political standing at home and abroad? | Continue reading
Information aggression is increasing in frequency and intensity. Russia uses messaging and intimidation in its efforts to influence multiple actors and countries. As frequent targets, how can the United States and its European allies defend themselves? | Continue reading
Russia's propaganda model is high-volume and multichannel, and it disseminates messages without regard for the truth. It is rapid, continuous, and repetitive, and it does not commit to consistency. | Continue reading
As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report analyzes how the United States can compete to its own advantage and capitalize on Russia's weaknesses. | Continue reading
Security Controls for Computer Systems : Report of Defense Science Board Task Force on Computer Security | Continue reading
Russia and China represent distinct challenges for the United States. Russia is a more immediate and more proximate military threat to U.S. national security. But China presents a regional military challenge and a global economic one. | Continue reading
Early in the pandemic, health care providers pivoted to telehealth out of necessity. But as policymakers begin to look beyond the pandemic, concerns about telehealth's effects on health care spending and quality will arise again. | Continue reading
Violent extremism is an evolving, ongoing threat in the United States. Interviews with former extremists—and their families and friends—offer insights into how individuals become radicalized, how they leave extremist groups, and what communities can do to stop the growth of extre … | Continue reading
In this video, Alan Kay gives a brief demo of the RAND tablet, a graphical computer input device developed at the RAND Corporation in the 1960s. It featured a 10-inch by 10-inch active tablet area and is believed to be the first such graphic device of its kind. | Continue reading
There are different ways of determining who should be considered middle-class. But there is one thing they have in common: all reveal that the middle class in the United States is shrinking. | Continue reading
A new epistemological approach to the inexact sciences, which include applied physical sciences, such as engineering and medicine, as well as most of the social sciences. | Continue reading
Even when relevant data is publicly available, U.S. intelligence analysts are not including it in their analytic products during their routine course of business. This willful ignorance of publicly available information is hurting U.S. national security. | Continue reading
The January 6 attack at the U.S. Capitol emphasized the need for more research to inform violent extremism prevention and deradicalization strategies. Interviews with former extremists and their family members shed light on what leads people to join—and later leave—extremist grou … | Continue reading
In 1946, more than 11 years before the orbiting of Sputnik, history's first artificial space satellite, Project RAND—then active within Douglas Aircraft Company's Engineering Division—conducted a study on the feasibility of a space vehicle from an engineering standpoint. | Continue reading
Taiwan remains the People's Liberation Army's main strategic direction despite a growing recognition that the PLA must also support China's international interests and presence. Does China see itself as capable of confronting the United States and its allies in a conflict over Ta … | Continue reading
Telehealth use has surged during the pandemic at clinics that serve lower-income Americans, which allowed the clinics to maintain access to care. But most visits have been audio-only, which may pose challenges if payers consider dropping reimbursement for such services after the … | Continue reading
Prescription drug prices in the United States are significantly higher than in other nations, with prices in the United States averaging 2.56 times those seen in 32 other nations. | Continue reading
RAND researchers explored the capabilities and limitations of future artificial intelligence and machine learning weapon systems in two wargame experiments that brought together operators and engineers. | Continue reading
RAND researcher Paul Baran developed a solution that has evolved into one of the major technological innovations of our time. | Continue reading
Income inequality is an aspect of economics that resonates with many Americans: It feels like the rich are getting richer, while the rest are having a hard time just getting by. What would income distribution look like today if incomes grew apace with the economy? | Continue reading
An evaluation of the impact of a thermonuclear war and a description of some of the risks that might cause decisionmakers to weigh the alternatives of whether or not to go to war. | Continue reading
Russian propaganda is hitting its mark on social media, generating strong partisan reactions that help intensify political divisions. But Facebook users are less apt to press the like button on content when they learn that it is part of a foreign propaganda campaign. | Continue reading
Russian propaganda is hitting its mark on social media—generating strong partisan reactions that may help intensify political divisions—but Facebook users are less apt to press the “like” button on content when they learn that it is part of a foreign propaganda campaign. | Continue reading
Insulin prices are more than eight times higher in the United States than in 32 high-income comparison nations combined. | Continue reading
For two decades after World War II, incomes grew at a rate close to the U.S. economy-wide growth rate. Anemic growth from 1969 to 1974 kept inequality in check. But since then, the benefits of growth have not been evenly distributed. Racial and gender inequality is also manifeste … | Continue reading
Describes a subway concept called "Planetran" comprising electromagnetically supported and propelled cars traveling in underground evacuated tubes, able to cross the United States in one hour. | Continue reading
The goal of Russian interference is to trigger emotional reactions and drive people to ideological extremes, making it nearly impossible to build a consensus. But Americans are less likely to have their emotions manipulated if they are aware that manipulation is the goal. | Continue reading
A textbook in the theory of games which discusses the mathematicaltheory of situations involving conflict among rational agents. The problem considered is: How should each agent maximize his expectation of gain. | Continue reading
A proposal advocating research into the long-lasting effects of d-lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) on normal people. | Continue reading
RAND researchers asked a nationally representative sample of adults about their news-consumption habits. The answers reveal clues about what it might take to address Truth Decay—the decline of facts in U.S. public life. | Continue reading