Science Moved Beyond Peer Review During the Pandemic

And what scientists learned they still needed it for. | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 2 years ago

Place to Move If You’re Worried About Climate Change

This summer, we asked readers to send us their climate change questions. A lot of those questions sat squarely under umbrella topics we expected: how climate sc… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 2 years ago

Keegan Skeate was working the night shift when he first heard about the scam. The 26-year-old was only a few months into his new job at Praxis Laboratory, a Was… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 2 years ago

America’s Pot Labs Have a THC Problem

Keegan Skeate was working the night shift when he first heard about the scam. The 26-year-old was only a few months into his new job at Praxis Laboratory, a Was… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 2 years ago

Why People Fall for Conspiracy Theories

You might not believe in QAnon, but you could still fall down the rabbit hole. | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 2 years ago

When Yermín Mercedes of the Chicago White Sox got a 3-0 meatball to hit in the ninth inning of a May 17 blowout against the Minnesota Twins, he didn’t miss. But… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 2 years ago

Supreme Court religious exemptions augur badly for LGBTQ rights

Over the past few decades, particularly this one, the U.S. Supreme Court has increasingly lent a sympathetic ear to those who say their religious beliefs are be… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 2 years ago

How The Republican Push To Restrict Voting Could Affect Our Elections

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, Republican lawmakers have pushed new voting restrictions in nearly every state. From making it harder to cast ballots ear… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 2 years ago

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, Republican lawmakers have pushed new voting restrictions in nearly every state. From making it harder to cast ballots ear… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 2 years ago

Why Being 'Anti-Media' Is Now Part Of The GOP Identity

There’s little question that the media is one of the least trusted institutions in Republican circles. In the past two decades, trust in traditional media has p… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

The Riddler Weekly Quiz

Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented e… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

What history can tell us about solving our current political divisions. | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

All the Ways Georgia Could Make It Harder to Vote

We spent the summer and fall of 2020 tracking changes to state voting regulations due to the pandemic, when almost every state relaxed its laws to make it easie… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Nine Lessons I Learned About Political Reporting While Covering Trump

In the fall of 2015, I was having drinks in Washington with a colleague at the time, now-MSNBC host Joy Reid. (I was working at NBC News.) Donald Trump was lead… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

In his inaugural address, President Biden described America as in the midst of an “uncivil war that pits red against blue, rural versus urban, conservative vers… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Fights over the Covid-19 Vaccine Are Everywhere on Facebook

If you took one look at the Facebook group Vaccines Exposed, it seemed clear what it was all about. It was “a group opposed to deadly vaccinations,” with over 1… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

What Kicking Trump Off Twitter Can – and Can’t – Do

It was The Trump Show 24 hours a day, seven days a week. For years, Trump has used social media to set the agenda with every one of his thoughts, policies and l… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Happy New Year - Your Resolutions Won’t Bring You Joy

It is the new year. A time for growth. A time to explore new possibilities in life. A time to sidle up to the person hogging the treadmill you want at the gym a… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Christmas Is Bird-Counting Season

This winter marks the 117th year of a scientific holiday tradition — the National Audubon Society’s annual Christmas Bird Count. Every year beginning on Dec. 1… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Fuzzy logic rice cookers (2016)

One of the first things I bought when I moved to college was a rice cooker. It was simple, the kind that costs 20 bucks at any old appliance or homeware store a… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Dead Millionaire Convinced Dozens of Women to Have as Many Babies as Possible

On Oct. 31, 1926, Charles Vance Millar, a well-known and wealthy Canadian lawyer, died at age 73. Halloween was a fitting day for him to go; Millar loved practi… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Might Biden be different on tech issues

Most political obsessives trying to guess who President-elect Joe Biden might pick to be in his Cabinet are focused on the flashy positions: secretary of state,… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Why are great athletes more likely to be younger siblings?

Venus Williams was the first of the Williams sisters to make a splash in professional tennis. But Richard Williams, their father, was always convinced that Sere… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

The Lakers used free agency to make themselves stronger. | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Daryl Morey may have changed cities and rosters, but he hasn’t changed his stripes. | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

The Polls Weren’t Great. But That’s Pretty Normal

I’m not a pollster, although I’m often misidentified as one on TV. I wanted to get that out of the way because while, in practice, our lives probably get easier… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

A Data Dump Would Show Simultaneous Increases but of Different Magnitudes Right?

As the hours pass, some battleground states have swung back and forth between Joe Biden leads and Donald Trump leads. As Laura Bronner explains, that’s not a si… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Nate Silvers Mathematical Approach to forecasting

FiveThirtyEight has issued its final presidential forecast. There hasn’t been a lot of change over the past 24 or 48 hours, as most of the late polling either c… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Why fivethirtyeight thinks that exit polls will be misleading this time

Exit polls are usually a core component of election-night reporting — especially before real results come in. They can provide an early sense of which candidate… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

It’s tempting to write this story in the form of narrative fiction: “On a frigid early December morning in Washington, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that disputed… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Why Rejected Ballots Could Be a Big Problem in 2020

As many states have changed their laws to encourage the use of mail voting during the pandemic, one big problem has become apparent: the number of mail ballots … | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

The Story of 2016 (2017)

On Friday at noon, a Category 5 political cyclone that few journalists saw coming will deposit Donald Trump atop the Capitol Building, where he’ll be sworn in a… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Trump's Bout With COVID-19 Might Be Hurting His Reelection Chances

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week It’s been exactly one week since we learned that President Trump had tested positive fo… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

What State Polls Can Tell Us About the National Race

Earlier this week, I was working on an article that claimed Joe Biden had better results in state polls than in national polls. Then on Wednesday, the inevitabl… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

What If Trump Loses and Won’t Leave?

For months now, President Trump has carefully planted the seed that he might not leave the office of the presidency willingly if he loses. Whether it’s tweeting… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Experts Think US Economy Would Be Stronger If Lockdowns Had Been More Aggressive

Back in the early days of the coronavirus in the U.S., many economists believed that aggressive lockdowns would be the best long-term solution for managing the … | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

The Senate's Rural Skew Makes It Very Hard For Democrats To Win The Supreme Court

I don’t have a particularly strong take on how the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg will affect either the presidential election or the race for control of the U.S.… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

The Senate’s Rural Skew Makes It Hard for Democrats to Win the Supreme Court

I don’t have a particularly strong take on how the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg will affect either the presidential election or the race for control of the U.S.… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

There was no better pitcher in Major League Baseball over the last two seasons than Jacob deGrom, and in this shortened season he had taken his performance to a… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Pennsylvania Could Decide the 2020 Election

This is the fourth in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states. Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the singl… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Why Coming Up with Effective Interventions to Address Covid-19 Is So Hard

It has been hard to measure the effects of the novel coronavirus. Not only is COVID-19 far-reaching — it’s touched nearly every corner of the globe at this poin… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Economists don't think the lower unemployment rate signals a clear recovery

After an August jobs report that yielded better-than-expected results for American workers, economists have a much sunnier outlook on unemployment through the e… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Trump and Covid-19 Have Reshaped the Modern Militia Movement

In the video, the host of a local independent news radio program surveys the late-night shadows of a Kenosha, Wisconsin, car lot. You can just make out four men… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Smart Watches Could Do More for Wheelchair Users

Fitness trackers tend to misstate the number of wheelchair pushes. | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Why There Are So Few Moderate Republicans Left

And why that’s not likely to change.Monday marks the first night of the Republican National Convention, and things could certainly be going better for President Trump. | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

MVP Voting in the NBA Has Never Been More Boring

Gone are the days of fringe picks for the NBA's most prestigious award. | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works

Our presidential forecast, which launched today, is not the first election forecast that FiveThirtyEight has published since 2016. There was our midterms foreca… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago

Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states su… | Continue reading


@fivethirtyeight.com | 3 years ago