Exactly. That’s why it’s a forecast, not an accurate account of what’s going to happen in the future. This seems axiomatic, but our desire for certainty keeps letting us down. The shifting of forecasts is evidence that they’re merely forecasts. | Continue reading
When it slams into your house and destroys it, we’re likely to pursue one of two lines of thinking: –How did I cause this? What choices did I make, what mistakes did I permit, why did I deserve to have this damage, or who can I blame? –Well, that happened, now what should I do? [ … | Continue reading
Lana Swartz coined this term in her breakthrough paper on crypto. A scam always involves a transaction. In the traditional fraud, the scammer tells a lie and the buyer, either with or without diligence, believes it and loses everything. You buy the magic beans, but they don’t gro … | Continue reading
A gift doesn’t diminish the giver. Sharing creates connection, possibility and energy. And the magic of gratitude is that it improves everything it touches, especially the person who offered it in the first place. So, what holds us back? Fear. Fear of connection, of change, of se … | Continue reading
The new version of Claude can read a document of up to 400 pages in about three minutes. You can then ask it for criticism, summaries or other insights. I wouldn’t use it on a piece of literature, but if you’re reading for work (aren’t we all), it will dramatically increase how m … | Continue reading
Here’s a large blue bedsheet, queen sized. If we’re going to pull it taut, it will take the coordinated effort of eight people, each pulling just the right amount, from each corner and edge. If we’re going to billow it up and down, like a parachute, we’re going to need those peop … | Continue reading
A well-designed bicycle is efficient, inexpensive and delightful. If you use your bike on the right paths, with appropriate goals, it can deliver exactly what you need, while also allowing you to go at your own pace, see what’s going on around you and feel grounded. Until, of cou … | Continue reading
Somewhere, there is the ideal soil for growing mangoes. Or the best possible wave for surfing. Or the most romantic sunset for a proposal. But it’s not right here and it’s not right now. Our success has a lot to do with how we dance with conditions that aren’t quite perfect. … | Continue reading
They’re everywhere we look. Here are a few thoughts on the ones that won’t go away: First, is it a problem or a situation? Problems, by definition, have solutions. You might not like the cost of the solution, the trade-offs it leads to, or the time and effort it takes, but proble … | Continue reading
For years, I’ve been using this picture of Neil Armstrong when I tell the story of meeting him and hearing his talk at one of his last public appearances: I wasn’t there when this photo was taken, so I relied on a Google image search to find it: I compounded Google’s error. Sorry … | Continue reading
That’s the avoidable one and the one that usually causes the real trouble. When the first mistake flusters us, breaks our rhythm or messes with our confidence, we’re far more likely to make the second one. It’s almost impossible to avoid making a mistake. But avoiding the second … | Continue reading
Apple didn’t succeed because of the way Steve Jobs dressed. Just like SBF’s hair didn’t put him in jail. We can look at the outré behavior of various Silicon Valley overlords and come to the conclusion that it’s not only a necessary part of the job but actually the cause of their … | Continue reading
My new short LinkedIn class on project management just launched, and I’ll be discussing it live today with Amanda Ruud … we’ll be there if you want to bring your questions. Sooner or later, all important work becomes project work. After the extraordinary feedback from her last se … | Continue reading
It might feel like an endless slog now, but when the innovation appears, people won’t remember how long it took to get here. Often, we assume that today’s snapshot is actually the entire movie, but it rarely is. | Continue reading
“I don’t want to send this pitch to a list of every single podcaster in the world, but we have to get the word out.” “I don’t want to send an email to every one of our previous donors every three days until they unsubscribe, but our work is so important, it has to be […] | Continue reading
Many moths are attracted to light. That works fine when it’s a bright moon and an open field, but not so well for the moths if the light was set up as a bug trap. Processionary caterpillars follow the one in front until their destination, even if they’re arranged in a circle, lea … | Continue reading
It’s easy to smirk at the ridiculous images one can make in twenty seconds with AI. People used to smirk at photographs in the 1800s. “I’ll believe it when I see it,” is no longer a useful thing to say. Truth is real, photos are not. | Continue reading
Not “amateur” as in the unprepared professional. Amateur as in the passionate individual, untrained but with something to say. If you’re called on to give a talk or presentation, the biggest trap to avoid is the most common: Decide that you need to be just like a professional pre … | Continue reading
Paradigm shifts are appealing but rarely well executed. A paradigm is our mental model of the world. We’re surrounded by people who share a similar model, and as long as the model is working, we live our lives without thinking much about it. If you lived in a space station, the a … | Continue reading
When electricity came along, there was a swath of industries that were trapped in an old way of thinking. The only ones that thrived were able to walk away from what they used to do and eagerly embrace something new. When the internet was young, the major book publishers had ever … | Continue reading
In Steven Pressfield’s classic The War of Art, he introduces the idea of Resistance. It’s the internal force that keeps us from doing our most important creative work. If an instinct, a habit or a feeling gets in the way of the work, it’s Pressfield’s Resistance. Things we would … | Continue reading
Mixing up a batch of homemade vegan marshmallow Fluff® is an exercise in patience. For the first nine minutes of the ten minutes it takes in the mixer, not much happens. And then, it transforms into something fluffy and delightful. Without the recipe, it’s unlikely that most folk … | Continue reading
It’s worth the most when it’s the most difficult to find. | Continue reading
When we raise our expectations for a student, a friend or a co-worker, we open the door to possibility. We offer them dignity and a chance to grow. We are offering them trust. But if we become attached to those expectations, if the expectation unmet leads us to distress or unhapp … | Continue reading
There are people who get paid to play the flute or bassoon. There are far more people who volunteer to participate in a community orchestra. For many, rehearsals or performances are the high points of their day. The metaphor is powerful, because it teaches us that we all benefit … | Continue reading
Not all tech is new tech. The ballpoint pen was a revelation, and a bit controversial. Now, it’s disposable and obvious. Different industries go through tech spurts. My desk is covered with items I use every day (a mouse, headphones, a solid-state drive, transparent tape, and eve … | Continue reading
Deny the problem. Minimize it, make up data, distract from the conversation, make people feel like hypocrites, and emphasize the convenient and persistent elements of what is in place. Acknowledge … | Continue reading
Everyone knows what it is to be conscious, and we imagine that other people are also aware. That we have a voice in our heads, apparent agency and free will, a little person inside who is commenting, making decisions and in charge. We’re not sure if dogs have this, and we’re pret … | Continue reading
You’ll need two 8-foot boards and six five-gallon buckets. Each board is a standard 2 x 4, about two inches by four inches in size. And the bucket is about two feet deep. The first lesson is simple: Put the board on the floor and have a colleague walk from one end to the other. [ … | Continue reading
New approaches will never be embraced by everyone at first. If you need unanimous consent, you’re not going to move forward. And it’s not convenient. If it were, someone would have done it already. Finally, it’s not sure to work. If you need any or all three of these things for y … | Continue reading
To win a Nobel prize a hundred years ago, you might only need a legal pad and a few pencils. Today, it takes millions of dollars, scores of people and many years of effort. That’s because the most straightforward problems have been solved. One side effect of this inevitable shift … | Continue reading
And those are the two challenges of anyone seeking to make an impact. First, we get distracted by the inclination to make the group as big as we can imagine. After all, the change is essential, the idea is a good one. It’s for everyone. Except that’s a trap. Because a group that’ … | Continue reading
There are now 1,000 of us in this online community that’s not a social network. Proudly a millionth the size of some other online experiences. It includes the original Creative’s Workshop, with hundreds of people working through it, side by side. And just added, access to the Mar … | Continue reading
In many creative industries, there’s a similar pattern. When the stakes are very low, most creators produce things that are fairly banal and ordinary. Part of that is the law of large numbers, but it’s mostly our personal cultural resistance to leaning too far into weird stuff. A … | Continue reading
It’s classic linkbait. Headlines that explain why something is happening. Questions to AI about why something happens. Even kids, asking their parents. Why is easy to sell. Why is hard to deliver. Consultants make a good living explaining the why. And media companies try to. But … | Continue reading
Kindergarten teachers matter more than you think. Chess isn’t a talent, it’s a learned practice. We’re sorting for head starts, not growth. And that’s just the first chapter. I think Hidden Potential is the most important book in Adam Grant’s career. The indoctrination around tes … | Continue reading
When asked what his favorite composition was, Duke Ellington said, “the next one.” This is the essence of the artistic process. When we’re in the liminal space between now and what is about to come, we’re fully alive. | Continue reading
Water flows downhill, and tech solves the easy problems first. After the launch of Amazon and Google, when smartphones reached critical mass, an easy problem to solve involved bridging information with stuff. So you could use your phone to summon a car, a case of beer, a dog sitt … | Continue reading
Forty years ago, Arlie Russell Hochschild wrote about emotional labor. The work that frontline employees had to do (especially women) in managing and expressing emotions as part of their job. She talked about how exhausting it was for flight attendants to show up with a smile, ev … | Continue reading
Complicated problems have a solution, and the solution can often be found by breaking the complicated portions into smaller pieces. And complicated problems often have an emotional component, because there are parts of the problem we don’t want to look at closely, or deal with pe … | Continue reading
How do we know if we’re doing a good job? In some fields, it’s always been pretty easy to tell. Either the building falls down or it doesn’t. Either the car starts after you charge the battery or it’s still dead. We can ask easy questions about how long it took or how much it […] … | Continue reading
I was delighted to share this short talk with my friend Sue. I thought it might resonate with you. I hope it’s helpful. More interviews and talks are here. And my books are here. | Continue reading
I lost a cookbook the other day. After twenty more minutes of searching, there it was, right on the cookbook shelf. But the spine was much more subtle than the cover, and it hadn’t been what I was looking for or expecting. We spend a lot of time on our (metaphorical) book covers. … | Continue reading
Here’s a simple XY grid to help you think about your next project, freelance career or startup: All too common are ‘fun’ businesses where someone finds a hobby they like and tries to turn it into a gig. While the work may be fun, the uphill grind of this sort of project is exhaus … | Continue reading
AI pushes us to do what we actually get paid to do: make decisions. Craft used to drive our hours or even days. Get the pen lines just right. Source the Letraset. Get your instrument in tune. Sweat the details, because the details are everything. Now, I can choose from 1,000 type … | Continue reading
Perhaps they were chosen a very long time ago. Or with very little thought. It could be that the constraints that led to the default are long gone. They might be perpetuating bad choices, injustice or sub-optimal outputs. The best way to fix something is to look at what we assume … | Continue reading
It’s a tempting shortcut. Different kinds of people prefer pop tarts to pizza, or prefer expensive wine to beer, or prefer amusement parks to bowling. Except everyone is the same and everyone is different. What’s actually useful is to realize that in this moment, under these cond … | Continue reading
Good pizza is rare, even though the method to create it is well known. Any efforts to make it more convenient, cheaper or easier will almost always make it worse. If you think this post is about pizza, I’m afraid that we’re already stuck. | Continue reading